Generation Recovery Plan Shows Results: Unplanned Outages Drop by 1,201MW as Grid Stability Continues

October 24, 2025

Power System Shows Continued Stability with 161 Days Without Loadshedding

South Africa's power system is continuing to demonstrate stability and reliability, with the grid now operating without loadshedding for 161 consecutive days, according to Eskom's latest performance update.

The utility reports that the technical improvements achieved under its Generation Recovery Plan have ensured consistent electricity supply for more than 98% of the time during the current financial year, with only 26 hours of loadshedding recorded between April and October 2025.

Significant Reduction in Unplanned Outages

From October 10-23, Eskom recorded an average of 9,954MW in unplanned outages, showing a substantial improvement from the 11,155MW during the same period last year. This represents a year-on-year reduction of 1,201MW in breakdowns, reflecting growing reliability in the generation fleet.

The Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF) for October 1-23 decreased to 22.85%, a 2.81% improvement compared to the 25.66% recorded during the same period in 2024.

Energy Availability Factor Hits Important Milestone

A significant achievement highlighted in the update is that the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has reached and surpassed 70% more than 24 times since August 2025 – a critical benchmark that Eskom has been targeting for several years.

For the period of October 1-23, the EAF stood at 64.28%, up from 61.44% during the same period last year, showing an improvement of 2.84%.

Planned Maintenance Continues

The Planned Capacity Loss Factor (PCLF) increased slightly to 12.55%, up from 12.51% recorded the previous year. This planned maintenance is part of Eskom's strategy to improve long-term plant reliability and operational consistency.

Year-to-date, planned maintenance has averaged 5,328MW, accounting for 11.35% of total generation capacity – a 0.31% increase compared to the same period last year.

Diesel Usage and Costs

From April to October 2025, diesel expenditure has remained consistently below budget, reflecting reduced reliance on the diesel-powered Open-Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) fleet. The year-to-date load factor for OCGTs decreased to 6.06%, though this remains higher than the 5.61% recorded during the same period last year.

In the past week, diesel spending was R7.84 million at a load factor of 0.23%, lower than the same period last year when spending was R21.81 million at a 0.639% load factor.

Outlook

Eskom plans to return 1,715MW of generation capacity to service ahead of the evening peak on Monday, October 27, and throughout the coming week, which should further strengthen grid stability.

In its Summer Outlook published on September 5, Eskom forecasted no loadshedding for the period from September 2025 to March 2026, citing structural progress in plant performance from the Generation Recovery Plan. While this forecast represents Eskom's official position, it's worth noting that unexpected plant breakdowns or other unforeseen events could still affect system stability.

Load Reduction Challenges

Despite the improved generation performance, Eskom notes that illegal connections and meter tampering continue to strain the network in certain areas. The utility is implementing a plan to eliminate load reduction by 2027, which will benefit approximately 1.69 million customers across 971 feeders nationally.

Interventions include expanding Free Basic Electricity to more households, installing 577,000 smart meters by 2026, and deploying Distributed Energy Resources to strengthen supply in high-demand and remote areas.

Key Terms Explained

• Energy Availability Factor (EAF): The percentage of maximum energy generation that a plant is capable of supplying to the electrical grid, limited only by planned and unplanned outages. A 70% EAF means 70% of Eskom's total generation capacity is available to produce electricity.
• Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF): The percentage of generation capacity lost due to unexpected breakdowns or failures. Lower percentages indicate better plant reliability.
• Planned Capacity Loss Factor (PCLF): The percentage of generation capacity unavailable due to scheduled maintenance. Higher percentages typically indicate more proactive maintenance is being performed.
• Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs): Power generation units that run on diesel and are typically used during peak demand periods or emergencies. They are expensive to operate but can be started quickly when needed.
• Load Factor: The ratio between actual energy generated and the maximum possible generation if operated at full capacity. For OCGTs, a lower load factor indicates less reliance on these expensive emergency units.