Eskom Projects Loadshedding-Free Summer Following Successful Winter Performance

6 September 2025

Eskom Forecasts Loadshedding-Free Summer Following Strong Winter Performance

Eskom has concluded its winter 2025 period with remarkable improvement, experiencing only 26 hours of loadshedding across four evenings between June and August. This represents a significant recovery compared to previous years, with electricity supply maintained 97% of the time throughout the winter months.

According to Eskom's latest Summer Outlook, South Africans can expect no loadshedding from September 2025 through March 2026 - a stark improvement from the 13 days of outages recorded during the same period last year, and a dramatic turnaround from the 176 days of loadshedding during the 2023/24 summer when electricity was only available 17% of the time.

Recovery Plan Delivers 4,000MW Capacity Boost

The primary driver behind this improvement is the Generation Recovery Plan, which has added approximately 4,000MW of additional capacity compared to the start of last summer. This increase comes from a combination of completed maintenance projects, improved plant performance, and new generation units coming online.

Key achievements highlighted in Eskom's statement include:

• Restoration of 7,800MW capacity since 2023, including 1,400MW from Medupi Unit 4 and Kusile Unit 6 added this year
• A reduction of approximately 1,900MW in peak planned maintenance requirements this summer
• Improvement in Energy Availability Factor (EAF) from 55% in FY2023 to 61.1% year-to-date, a 6.1% improvement over two years
• Reduction in diesel generation expenditure from R33 billion in FY2024 to R17 billion in FY2025

An additional 930MW of capacity is expected when Koeberg Unit 1 returns to service in September following its Long-Term Operation maintenance.

Measurable Improvements in Plant Performance

By the end of August 2025, unplanned outages had dropped to 10,100MW, with a record low of 6,900MW recorded on August 23-24 - the lowest level since September 2020.

The EAF reached 66% in August 2025, representing a 10% increase since April 2025. According to Eskom, 38 generating units are now performing above 80% EAF, with an average monthly improvement of 2.6%.

Diesel usage has also steadily declined, falling from a load factor of 16.02% in April to just 1.84% in August. This contributes to the significant cost savings of approximately R16 billion in diesel expenditure over the past financial year.

Outlook: Sustaining Improvements While Building Capacity

While the short-term outlook appears positive, Eskom faces the challenge of sustaining these improvements while addressing broader electricity sector issues. The utility has outlined several priorities:

• Continuing implementation of operational reliability interventions
• Expanding transmission capacity through the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA)
• Reducing load reduction by up to 20% by March 2026 through tackling electricity theft, removing illegal connections, and installing smart meters
• Supporting the development of the South African Wholesale Electricity Market (SAWEM)

Dan Marokane, Eskom Group Chief Executive, attributed the improvements to "the expertise and dedication of the Eskom Guardians over the past three years and the associated support from government-led initiatives." He also emphasized cost efficiencies achieved alongside performance improvements.

Similarly, Bheki Nxumalo, Eskom Group Executive for Generation, pointed to "disciplined execution" by Eskom teams as laying "a solid foundation for a positive Summer Plan."

Key Terms Explained

Energy Availability Factor (EAF): The percentage of maximum energy generation that a plant is capable of supplying to the electrical grid, after accounting for planned and unplanned outages. Higher is better - Eskom's target is 70%.

Unplanned outages: Power station breakdowns that occur unexpectedly. These are measured in megawatts (MW) of unavailable capacity and directly impact loadshedding when they exceed available reserves.

National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA): A separate entity created from Eskom's transmission division, responsible for the national power grid and integrating electricity from various producers.

Planned maintenance: Scheduled outages where power stations are taken offline for necessary repairs and upkeep. While these reduce available capacity temporarily, they help prevent future breakdowns.

Load reduction: A targeted power cut in specific areas, typically due to overloading or to prevent equipment damage in high-theft areas. Different from loadshedding, which is national and scheduled.

Megawatt (MW): A unit of power equal to one million watts. For context, 1MW can power approximately 650-800 South African homes.