22 August 2025

Historic Drop in Unplanned Outages: Eskom Reports First Sub-8000MW Breakdown Level Since 2020

Eskom has reached a significant milestone in its recovery efforts, with unplanned outages dropping to 7,265MW as of Friday, 22 August 2025. This marks the first time since December 2020 that breakdowns have fallen below the 8,000MW threshold, representing nearly five years of recovery work.

The power utility attributes this improvement to the ongoing implementation of its Generation Recovery Plan, which has delivered structural improvements in plant performance.

Power System Remains Stable as Winter Season Concludes

With just over a week remaining in Eskom's defined Winter Outlook period, the power system remains stable with available generation capacity currently at 30,442MW against an expected evening peak demand of 25,378MW. This comfortable margin has helped maintain the extended period without loadshedding.

South Africa has experienced no loadshedding since 15 May 2025, with only 26 hours of power cuts recorded in the nearly five months since the start of the financial year on 1 April.

Key Performance Metrics Show Improvement

Between 15 and 21 August 2025, the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) fluctuated between 63% and 69%, with the month-to-date average rising to 64.98%. This represents a significant improvement over the lows of below 50% experienced in 2023.

The Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF) has decreased to 27.85% for the period from 1 April to 21 August 2025, showing a week-on-week improvement of approximately 0.29%. However, this remains about 2% higher than the 25.81% recorded during the same period last year.

Additional Capacity Coming Online

Eskom plans to return a substantial 4,850MW of generation capacity to service by Monday, 25 August 2025, further strengthening the grid as the winter season concludes.

Kusile Unit 6 has been contributing 720MW to the national grid since 23 March 2025 and is expected to reach commercial operation by September 2025.

Diesel Usage Remains Controlled

The open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) load factor decreased to 0.78% this week from 1.21% the previous week, with these expensive-to-run units only being utilized strategically during morning and evening peak periods.

From 1 April to 21 August 2025, diesel expenditure has remained within the allocated budget, with Eskom spending R5.916 billion on OCGT fuel to generate 999.95GWh of electricity during this period.

Outlook: What South Africans Can Expect

The Winter Outlook published on 5 May 2025 remains valid, indicating that loadshedding will not be necessary if unplanned outages stay below 13,000MW. Even if outages were to rise to 15,000MW, loadshedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days and restricted to Stage 2.

With current unplanned outages at 7,265MW, there is a substantial buffer before the loadshedding threshold would be reached.

Eskom is scheduled to announce its Summer Outlook in September 2025, which will provide guidance for the period ahead.

Eskom Warns Against Illegal Connections

Despite the positive performance, Eskom has cautioned customers about illegal connections and meter bypassing, which place strain on the network and can lead to transformer overloads, equipment damage, and extended outages.

The utility has implemented load reduction in high-risk areas during peak hours to prevent equipment damage and encourages eligible households to register for free basic electricity with their local municipalities.

Eskom has urged the public to report any illegal activity affecting its infrastructure to the Eskom Crime Line at 0800 112 722 or via WhatsApp on 081 333 3323.

Key Terms Explained

Energy Availability Factor (EAF): The percentage of maximum energy generation that a plant is capable of supplying to the electrical grid, after accounting for planned and unplanned outages. An EAF of 65% means that, on average, 65% of Eskom's total generation capacity is available to produce electricity. The higher the EAF, the better the performance.

Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF): The percentage of a plant's maximum possible energy generation that is lost due to unplanned outages (breakdowns). This includes trips, tube leaks and other technical failures. A lower UCLF indicates fewer breakdowns and better reliability.

Open-Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT): Power generation units that run on diesel fuel and are designed for peak demand periods. OCGTs are expensive to operate (costing up to 10 times more than coal per unit of electricity) but can be started quickly when needed. Eskom typically uses these as a last resort to prevent loadshedding.

1 Megawatt (MW): Enough electricity to power approximately 650 average South African homes. The current unplanned outage figure of 7,265MW therefore represents power that could supply about 4.7 million homes.

Generation Recovery Plan: Eskom's comprehensive strategy to improve the performance and reliability of its power stations, focusing on maintenance, operational improvements, and addressing design defects at newer plants.