Eskom Achieves 8-Year Low in Unplanned Outages as 126-Day Loadshedding-Free Streak Continues

2025-09-19

Eskom Reports Significant Drop in Unplanned Outages as Grid Stability Improves

Eskom has announced that unplanned outages have reached an eight-year low of 5,989MW on September 14, 2025, while maintaining a month-to-date Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 71%. The power utility continues its loadshedding-free streak, which now stands at 126 consecutive days.

The reduction in unplanned outages represents a year-on-year decrease of 5,615MW – equivalent to the generating capacity of an entire Medupi power station. This significant improvement has contributed to the country experiencing only 26 hours of loadshedding since April 1, 2025.

Sustained Performance Improvements

According to Eskom's latest report, the technical improvements under the Generation Recovery Plan have ensured that electricity demand has been met for over 97% of the time in the current financial year. Between September 12-18, unplanned outages averaged 7,467MW, substantially lower than the 13,082MW recorded during the same period last year.

The Energy Availability Factor has remained consistently strong, fluctuating between 70% and 74%, with the month-to-date average holding above 70% at 71.12%. This represents a significant improvement from the historical lows seen in previous years.

Planned maintenance continues as scheduled, with an average of 5,157MW of capacity under maintenance last week, in line with Eskom's summer maintenance plan.

Kusile Unit 6 Nearing Commercial Operation

Kusile Unit 6, which has been contributing 720MW to the national grid since March 23, 2025, is expected to reach commercial operation by September 30, 2025. The additional capacity has provided further stability to the system, though it is not yet included in official EAF calculations.

Eskom plans to return a total of 3,603MW of generation capacity to service ahead of the evening peak on Monday, September 22, 2025, and throughout the coming week, further strengthening grid resilience.

Reduced Reliance on Diesel

Diesel expenditure has consistently remained below budget since April 1, 2025, reflecting reduced reliance on Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs). Last week alone, diesel spending was just R8.99 million for 1.432GWh of electricity at a reduced load factor of 0.25%.

However, the year-to-date figures show that Eskom has generated 1,002.34GWh from OCGT plants while spending R5.938 billion on diesel since April 1, 2025 – higher than the 715.70GWh recorded during the same period last year. The year-to-date load factor for OCGTs stands at 7.15%, higher than the 5.11% recorded during the same period in 2024.

Summer Outlook

Eskom published its Summer Outlook on September 5, 2025, covering the period from September 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026. The utility forecasts no loadshedding during this period, attributing this positive outlook to structural improvements in plant performance resulting from the ongoing implementation of the Generation Recovery Plan.

While the performance metrics show significant improvement, the year-to-date EAF stands at 62.25% (excluding Kusile Unit 6), which is below the 63.44% recorded during the same period last year. The Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF) has decreased to 26.08%, showing a week-on-week improvement of approximately 0.5%.

Load Reduction Challenges Continue

Despite the improved grid stability, Eskom continues to implement load reduction in certain areas, averaging 529–544MW between April and June 2025. These controlled outages target areas with high levels of illegal connections and meter tampering, which pose risks to the network and can cause equipment damage and transformer overloads.

There has been some progress in reducing these issues, with a 3% national reduction in load reduction, including improvements in Limpopo (13%) and Mpumalanga (5%). Eskom aims to reduce load reduction by 15-20% by March 2026 and eliminate it entirely within two years.

The utility is addressing approximately 640,000 illegal connections, upgrading infrastructure with smart meters, curbing illegal electricity vending, and expanding access to free basic electricity in priority areas.

Outlook and Analysis

The current data suggests that Eskom's Generation Recovery Plan is yielding results, with significantly reduced unplanned outages and a consistently higher EAF. The extended period without loadshedding reflects genuine improvements in system reliability.

However, several challenges remain. The year-to-date EAF is still below last year's figure for the same period, and diesel usage has increased year-on-year despite recent weeks showing improvement. The persistent issues with illegal connections and the resulting need for load reduction indicate that distribution-side challenges continue to impact overall system performance.

As South Africa moves deeper into the spring season with its typically lower electricity demand, the power system appears well-positioned to maintain stability. The true test will come with the approach of summer storms and eventually the higher demand of winter 2026.

Key Terms Explained

• Energy Availability Factor (EAF): The percentage of Eskom's total generation capacity that is available for use. A 71% EAF means that 71% of Eskom's total theoretical capacity is available to generate electricity.
• Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF): The percentage of generation capacity lost due to unexpected breakdowns or failures. The current 26.08% UCLF means about a quarter of Eskom's generation capacity is offline due to unplanned issues.
• Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs): These are emergency power generation units that run on diesel fuel. They're expensive to operate but can be started quickly when additional power is needed. Think of them as the emergency generators of the national grid.
• Load Factor: For OCGTs, this represents how intensively these emergency generators are being used. A 0.25% load factor means they're barely being used, while the higher 7.15% year-to-date figure indicates more substantial usage earlier in the year.
• Load Reduction: Controlled outages in specific areas where network overloading due to illegal connections threatens equipment. Unlike loadshedding, which is implemented due to generation capacity shortages, load reduction targets specific areas with infrastructure risks.
• Generation Recovery Plan: Eskom's comprehensive strategy to improve power plant performance, reduce breakdowns, and increase the availability of generation units.
• Gigawatt-hour (GWh): A unit of energy equal to one million kilowatt-hours. For perspective, 1 GWh can power approximately 650,000 homes for one hour.