No Loadshedding for Over 2 Months as Coal Fleet Stabilizes, Unplanned Outages Hit Historic Low

South Africa's power system continues to operate without loadshedding, with Eskom reporting today that unplanned outages have reached their lowest level in recent history at 8,525MW, narrowly missing the record of 8,258MW set in October 2024.

No Loadshedding Since Mid-May

According to Eskom's latest update, the country has not experienced loadshedding since May 15, 2025, with only 26 hours of power cuts implemented between April and July 2025. This marks over 75 days of uninterrupted power supply during what is traditionally a challenging winter period.

The utility states that with 30 days remaining in its winter outlook period, the system remains well-positioned to maintain stability.

Coal Fleet Performance Improves

Eskom reports that 57% of its fourteen coal-fired power stations are now operating at an Energy Availability Factor (EAF) above 70%, with three stations achieving remarkable performance levels above 90%. An additional four stations are operating above 60% EAF.

The available generation capacity currently stands at 30,882MW, comfortably above tonight's expected peak demand of 27,837MW.

For the week ending July 31, 2025:

• Planned maintenance averaged 4,745MW
• EAF ranged between 64% and 71%
• Month-to-date average EAF rose to 64.08% (excluding Kusile Unit 6's 720MW)

Additional Capacity Expected

To further strengthen grid stability, Eskom plans to return 3,075MW of generation capacity ahead of Monday evening's peak on August 4, 2025, with additional units expected to return throughout the coming week.

Between April and July 2025, the Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF) decreased to 28.58%. This represents a week-on-week improvement of approximately 0.4%, though it remains about 2.3% higher than the 26.28% recorded during the same period last year.

As of July 31, the daily UCLF had dropped below 20% for the first time in several years, reaching 19.94%.

Reduced Reliance on Emergency Generation

The open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) load factor has decreased significantly, reaching just 0.31% for the week, down from 1.86% during the previous week. This indicates substantially less reliance on expensive diesel generation.

From April to July 2025, Eskom spent R5.626 billion on OCGT fuel, generating 954.20GWh of electricity. While this output is higher than the 493.17GWh generated during the same period last year, diesel spend remains within the allocated budget.

Outlook for Coming Months

Eskom's Winter Outlook, which covers the period ending August 31, 2025, remains unchanged. It indicates that loadshedding will not be necessary if unplanned outages stay below 13,000MW. The current seven-day average for unplanned outages stands at 10,206MW, which is 2,794MW below this threshold.

If outages were to rise to 15,000MW, loadshedding would still be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of the 153-day winter period and restricted to Stage 2.

The year-to-date EAF stands at 59.88% (excluding Kusile Unit 6), which is below the 62.84% recorded during the same period last year. This is primarily due to a 2.3% increase in unplanned maintenance compared to the previous year.

Call to Prevent Illegal Connections

With electricity demand rising during winter and loadshedding suspended, Eskom has urged customers to avoid illegal connections and meter bypassing, which strain the network and can lead to transformer failures and extended outages.

The utility noted that it continues to implement targeted load reduction in high-risk areas during peak hours to prevent equipment damage. Customers are encouraged to purchase electricity only through Eskom-accredited vendors.

Key Terms Explained

Energy Availability Factor (EAF): The percentage of maximum energy generation that a plant is capable of supplying to the electrical grid, limited only by planned and unplanned outages. An EAF of 70% means a power station can deliver 70% of its maximum possible output.

Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF): The percentage of a plant's maximum possible generation that is unavailable due to unplanned events like breakdowns or equipment failures. A UCLF of 20% means 20% of generation capacity is offline due to unexpected issues.

Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs): Power generation units that burn diesel to produce electricity during peak demand or emergencies. They're expensive to run (about R4.50 per kWh compared to R0.42 for coal) but can be started quickly when needed.

1,000MW: Roughly equivalent to the electricity needs of 650,000 homes or a small city. For context, Stage 1 loadshedding removes about 1,000MW from the national grid.