Loadshedding Remains Suspended Despite Winter Constraints

Suspension of Loadshedding Continues as Winter Sets In

Eskom reports that South Africa's power system remains stable enough to continue the suspension of loadshedding that began at 22:00 on Thursday, 15 May 2025. While the utility maintains that the system is still constrained, they have confirmed that adequate emergency reserves are in place to support demand during the peak winter periods ahead.

In positive news for the grid's stability, approximately 2,650MW of generation capacity is expected to return to service before Monday evening's peak demand period on 19 May 2025.

Current System Performance

The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) currently stands at 28.30% for the financial year-to-date (1 April to 15 May 2025), showing a marginal improvement of about 0.2% compared to the 28.47% recorded during the same period last year.

Planned maintenance has been reduced as winter approaches, averaging 5,407MW this past week (9-15 May) – though this figure remains slightly higher than typical winter maintenance levels seen in previous years. For the financial year-to-date, planned maintenance has averaged 6,669MW, representing 14.26% of total generation capacity, which is 3.1% higher than the previous year.

Diesel usage through Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) has increased, with the OCGT load factor rising to 10.94% this week, up from 3.87% in the previous week. However, Eskom projects that diesel usage will decline as more units return from long-term repairs and maintenance activities decrease.

Current Generation Status

As of today, unplanned outages have increased to 14,310MW, up from 11,670MW recorded last week. The available generation capacity currently stands at 28,548MW (excluding 720MW from Kusile Unit 6, which is not yet in commercial operation), while tonight's peak demand is projected at 28,523MW – leaving virtually no reserve margin.

The year-to-date Energy Availability Factor (EAF) stands at 56.97%, compared to 59.98% over the same period last year. This 3% decline is primarily attributed to the increase in planned maintenance activities.

Winter Outlook

According to Eskom's Winter Outlook published on 5 May 2025 (covering the period until 31 August 2025), loadshedding should not be necessary if unplanned outages stay below 13,000MW. However, if unplanned outages rise to 15,000MW, loadshedding could be implemented for up to 21 days of the 153-day winter period, limited to Stage 2.

It's worth noting that unplanned outages from 9 to 15 May 2025 averaged 14,162MW – which is 1,162MW above Eskom's base case scenario of 13,000MW and represents an increase of 2,490MW compared to the same period last year.

OCGT and Diesel Usage

Year-to-date, Eskom has spent approximately R2.85 billion on fuel for the OCGT fleet, generating 478.63GWh. This is significantly higher than the 176.85GWh generated during the same period last year. The year-to-date OCGT load factor stands at 12.98%, which is higher than the 4.80% recorded during the same period last year but represents a 2.8% decrease from the previous week.

Public Advisory: Protect Transformers and Report Illegal Connections

As electricity demand increases during winter, Eskom urges the public to avoid illegal connections and energy theft, which often lead to transformer overloads, equipment failures, and extended outages. These incidents frequently necessitate load reduction measures to protect the network.

The utility encourages customers to purchase electricity only from Eskom-accredited vendors and for eligible households to register for free basic electricity with their local municipalities. Illegal activities affecting Eskom's infrastructure can be reported to the Eskom Crime Line at 0800 112 722 or via WhatsApp on 081 333 3323.

Key Terms Explained

Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF): This measures the percentage of Eskom's generation capacity that is unexpectedly offline due to breakdowns, trips, and other unplanned events. The lower this number, the better – it means fewer unexpected breakdowns are occurring.

Energy Availability Factor (EAF): This indicates what percentage of Eskom's total generation capacity is available to produce electricity. A higher EAF means more of Eskom's power stations are operational and available to generate power. The current 56.97% means that just over half of Eskom's theoretical generation capacity is actually available.

Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs): These are essentially jet engines used to generate electricity, primarily running on diesel fuel in South Africa. They're expensive to operate but can be started quickly during peak demand periods or emergencies. The 'load factor' refers to how intensively these units are being used – higher percentages mean more diesel is being burned to keep the lights on.

MW (Megawatt): A unit of power. For context, 1MW can power approximately 650 average South African homes.

GWh (Gigawatt-hour): A measure of energy, equivalent to one gigawatt of power sustained for one hour. The 478.63GWh generated by OCGTs represents enough electricity to power about 300,000 homes for a month.

Load Reduction: Different from loadshedding, this is when Eskom cuts power to specific areas where illegal connections or overloading are causing damage to infrastructure.