South Africa's Power System Shows Stability: 147 Days Without Loadshedding

10 October 2025

The national power system continues to demonstrate stability according to Eskom's latest operational update, with unplanned outages decreasing and key performance metrics showing improvement compared to the same period last year.

Key Highlights: 147 Days Without Loadshedding

South Africa has now gone 147 consecutive days without loadshedding, with only 26 hours of power cuts recorded between 1 April and 9 October 2025. This represents consistent electricity supply for over 97.9% of the time during the current financial year.

Month-to-date figures show the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) has declined to 22.05%, down from 24.77% during the same period last year. This indicates fewer unexpected breakdowns across Eskom's generation fleet.

Between 3 and 9 October, Eskom recorded an average of 10,835MW in unplanned outages, showing a significant year-on-year reduction of 1,085MW compared to the 11,920MW during the same period in 2024.

Maintenance and Overall Availability

The Planned Capacity Loss Factor (PCLF), which reflects scheduled maintenance, has increased to 13.55%, slightly higher than the 13.27% recorded last year. This demonstrates Eskom's continued focus on necessary maintenance work.

The overall Energy Availability Factor (EAF) currently stands at 64.06%, an improvement from 61.63% a year ago, although slightly lower than previous weeks due to increased planned maintenance activities.

To further strengthen grid stability, Eskom plans to return 3,380MW of generation capacity to service ahead of the evening peak on Monday, 13 October, with additional returns scheduled throughout the coming week.

Reduced Reliance on Diesel Generation

From 1 April to 9 October 2025, diesel expenditure has remained consistently below budget, reflecting reduced reliance on Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs). The year-to-date load factor for OCGTs has decreased to 6.41%, indicating a shift toward more cost-effective primary generation sources.

In the past week alone, diesel spending was R27.74 million at a load factor of just 0.758%, considerably lower than the R97.4 million spent during the same period last year when the load factor was 2.86%.

Outlook: Summer 2025-2026

Eskom's recently published Summer Outlook (covering 1 September 2025 to 31 March 2026) forecasts no loadshedding for the period, citing structural improvements in plant performance resulting from the ongoing implementation of the Generation Recovery Plan.

While this represents a positive trend, it's important to note that the outlook depends on maintaining current performance improvements and avoiding significant unplanned outages. Seasonal demand variations and unforeseen technical issues could still impact this forecast.

Addressing Load Reduction in High-Risk Areas

Despite overall system stability, Eskom notes that load reduction remains necessary in certain high-risk areas where electricity theft, illegal connections, and meter tampering continue to compromise infrastructure integrity. These unauthorized activities often result in equipment damage, transformer overloads, and in severe cases, explosions.

The utility has committed to eliminating load reduction within the next 12 to 18 months by addressing approximately 640,000 illegal connections, upgrading infrastructure, curbing illegal electricity vending, and expanding access to free basic electricity in priority areas.

Key Terms Explained

Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF): The percentage of generating capacity lost due to unexpected breakdowns or failures. Lower UCLF means fewer unplanned outages, indicating better reliability.

Planned Capacity Loss Factor (PCLF): The percentage of generating capacity temporarily offline due to scheduled maintenance. Higher PCLF can indicate more proactive maintenance but temporarily reduces available capacity.

Energy Availability Factor (EAF): The percentage of maximum energy generation that is actually available. An EAF of 64.06% means about two-thirds of Eskom's total theoretical capacity is available for use. Industry standards typically target 80% or higher.

Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs): Quick-starting power plants that burn diesel to generate electricity during peak demand or emergencies. They're expensive to run (about R4-5 per kWh compared to coal at R0.40-0.60 per kWh) but provide crucial backup capacity.

Load Reduction: A targeted power cut in specific high-risk areas (usually during peak hours) where electricity theft and network overloading are common. Unlike loadshedding which is implemented nationally due to generation shortfall, load reduction aims to protect infrastructure from damage in specific areas.