Loadshedding-Free Run Continues As Eskom Reports Grid Stability Despite Winter Demand

July 4, 2025

Loadshedding Remains Suspended As Power System Shows Resilience

South Africa's power system remains stable with no loadshedding implemented since May 15, according to Eskom's latest update. The utility reports that only 26 hours of loadshedding were recorded in the first quarter of its 2026 financial year (April 1 to June 30).

The power utility continues to manage occasional system constraints with sufficient emergency reserves deployed strategically during morning and evening peak periods.

Current Performance Metrics

For the week ending July 3, Eskom reported the following key metrics:

• Energy Availability Factor (EAF) ranged between 61% and 64%, with a month-to-date average increase to 63.29%
• Planned maintenance averaged 3,528MW, showing a continued decline
• Unplanned outages currently stand at 13,167MW
• Open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) load factor declined to 10.70%, down 0.67% from the previous week, but higher than the 6.12% recorded during the same period last year

Unplanned Outages Increase: Technical Changes Rather Than Performance Issues

The Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF) has reached 29.74% for the current financial year-to-date, representing an increase of approximately 2.6% compared to the same period last year.

Eskom attributes this increase primarily to technical adjustments rather than operational decline. Two key factors influence these figures:

1. Medupi Unit 4 (800MW capacity) was added to the unplanned outages calculation on June 1. Although offline since 2021, it was previously excluded from calculations due to its extended inoperability.
2. Kusile Unit 6, which has been contributing 720MW since March 2025, has not yet been commercially declared and is therefore not included in performance metrics.

When accounting for these technical adjustments, the actual unavailable capacity due to unplanned outages is effectively 1,520MW lower than reported figures.

Winter Outlook Remains Unchanged

Eskom's Winter Outlook, published on May 5 and covering the period until August 31, remains valid. According to this outlook:

• Loadshedding will not be necessary if unplanned outages stay below 13,000MW
• If outages rise to 15,000MW, loadshedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days (out of 153) and restricted to Stage 2

With current unplanned outages sitting at 13,167MW, the system is operating just above the threshold where loadshedding might become necessary, though the utility continues to manage the situation without implementing power cuts.

Diesel Usage Within Budget But Higher Than Last Year

Year-to-date, Eskom has spent R4.85 billion on fuel for the OCGT fleet, generating 824.08GWh. This is higher than the 471.18GWh generated during the same period last year.

The utility expects diesel usage to decline as more units return to service from long-term repairs and as maintenance activities are reduced, increasing available generation capacity.

Warning Against Illegal Connections During Winter

Eskom has issued a warning about the risks of illegal connections and energy theft during the high-demand winter period. These activities often lead to transformer overloads, equipment failures, and in some cases, explosions and extended outages.

The utility encourages customers to:

• Purchase electricity only from Eskom-accredited vendors
• Regularize their electricity usage
• Report illegal activity to the Eskom Crime Line (0800 112 722) or via WhatsApp (081 333 3323)
• Register for free basic electricity with local municipalities if eligible

Outlook: Cautious Stability With Ongoing Challenges

While the immediate outlook appears stable, Eskom's performance metrics reveal ongoing challenges. The EAF of 58.21% for the financial year-to-date is lower than the 61.39% recorded during the same period last year, primarily due to increased unplanned maintenance.

With unplanned outages hovering just above the 13,000MW threshold identified in the Winter Outlook, the grid remains vulnerable to any significant additional breakdowns. The continued higher reliance on OCGTs compared to last year also suggests underlying generation constraints, despite the absence of loadshedding.

The next official update is scheduled for July 11, though Eskom has committed to promptly communicating any significant changes as they occur.

Key Terms Explained

• Energy Availability Factor (EAF): The percentage of maximum energy generation that a plant is capable of supplying to the electrical grid, accounting for both planned and unplanned outages. A higher percentage indicates better performance. For context, Eskom targets an EAF of 70% for long-term stability.
• Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF): The percentage of generation capacity lost due to unplanned outages (breakdowns). Lower is better. Anything above 15% is considered concerning, while numbers approaching 30% indicate significant system stress.
• Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs): Quick-starting power generation units primarily used for emergency generation during peak demand. They run on diesel fuel and are expensive to operate – approximately R4.50 per kWh compared to coal at roughly R0.40 per kWh.
• Load Factor: The ratio of actual energy generated by a power plant compared to the maximum possible generation over a specific time period. For OCGTs, a high load factor indicates heavy reliance on emergency generation.
• 1 Megawatt (MW): Enough electricity to power approximately 650-800 average South African homes simultaneously.