Eskom Reports Stable Power System Despite Rising Unplanned Outages

25 April 2025

Eskom Reports Stable Power System Despite Rising Unplanned Outages

Eskom reports the national power system remains stable as South Africa enters the long weekend, with loadshedding still suspended. The utility has restored 3,320MW of generation capacity in the past 24 hours, ensuring sufficient supply to meet current demand while maintaining adequate emergency reserves.

However, unplanned outages have increased to 13,519MW as of April 25th, up from 11,362MW last week, indicating ongoing challenges despite overall stability.

Current System Status

Available generation capacity currently stands at 28,386MW (excluding 720MW from Kusile Unit 6 which is not yet in commercial operation), while tonight's peak demand is forecasted at 27,073MW. This provides a tight but adequate margin between supply and demand.

Eskom plans to return an additional 4,058MW to service before Tuesday evening's peak (April 29th), which should further stabilize the grid if achieved as scheduled.

Winter Preparation Continues

Planned maintenance remains a priority as Eskom prepares for increased winter demand. From April 1-24, an average of 7,164MW (15.32% of generation capacity) has been under planned maintenance – a 3.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

This higher level of maintenance is partly responsible for the year-to-date Energy Availability Factor (EAF) decline to 56.36%, down from 58.05% during the same period last year.

Eskom has scheduled its official winter outlook announcement for May 5th, which should provide greater clarity on what South Africans can expect in the coming months.

Performance Indicators Show Mixed Results

The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) from April 1-24 stands at 27.82%, showing a modest improvement of approximately 2.1% compared to the 29.89% recorded during the same period in 2024.

However, Eskom has significantly increased its reliance on expensive diesel-powered generators. The Open Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) load factor rose to 15.28% during April 18-24, up from 9.78% the previous week. Year-to-date OCGT usage (18.92%) remains substantially higher than the 7.62% recorded during the same period last year.

From April 1-24, Eskom spent approximately R2.19 billion on OCGT fuel, generating 372.05GWh – significantly more than the 149.9GWh generated during the same period last year. The utility indicates this spending is expected to decrease as maintenance activities slow down for winter.

Outlook: Approaching Winter with Caution

While the power system remains stable enough to avoid loadshedding, several indicators suggest continued vulnerability as winter approaches:

• Rising unplanned outages (currently 13,519MW)
• Declining EAF (56.36%)
• Increased reliance on diesel generation
• Higher planned maintenance levels that will need to be reduced as winter demand increases

The successful return of the scheduled 4,058MW by April 29th will be crucial for maintaining stability heading into May. Eskom's winter outlook announcement on May 5th will likely provide a more comprehensive assessment of the system's readiness for the higher demand season.

Public Appeal for Transformer Protection

Eskom has issued a public appeal to protect transformers as winter approaches, highlighting that illegal connections lead to overloads that cause equipment failures, explosions, and extended outages.

The utility encourages eligible households to register for free basic electricity with their local municipalities and report illegal activities to the Eskom Crime Line at 0800 112 722 or via WhatsApp on 081 333 3323.

Key Terms Explained

Energy Availability Factor (EAF): The percentage of Eskom's total generation capacity that is available for use. Currently at 56.36%, this is well below Eskom's target of 70% but represents an improvement from the critical levels below 50% seen in 2023.

Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF): The percentage of generation capacity unavailable due to unexpected breakdowns. Currently at 27.82%, each percentage point represents roughly 470MW of capacity – or enough power for approximately 305,000 homes.

Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs): Diesel-powered generators used during peak demand periods or emergencies. These are expensive to run (costing approximately R4-5 per kWh compared to coal at R0.40-0.60 per kWh) and are meant for short-term emergency use rather than regular generation.

1 Megawatt (MW): Enough electricity to power approximately 650 average South African homes. The current unplanned outages of 13,519MW represent enough power for about 8.8 million households.