2025-04-04

Loadshedding Remains Suspended Despite Ongoing Power System Constraints

Loadshedding remains suspended across South Africa as of Friday, 4 April 2025, despite a constrained power system. The constraints are primarily due to high levels of planned maintenance and increased electricity demand driven by nationwide overcast weather conditions expected to continue until next Wednesday.

Current System Status

According to Eskom, the system remains stable with sufficient emergency reserves to manage peak demand during evening hours. As of today, unplanned outages have slightly decreased to 13,608MW from 13,730MW last week. The current available generation capacity stands at 26,735MW, with tonight's peak demand forecasted at 26,578MW, leaving very little buffer.

A significant 7,034MW of generation capacity is currently under planned maintenance as Eskom continues with its reliability enhancement program ahead of winter. An additional 3,300MW of generation capacity is expected to return to service before the evening peak on Monday, 7 April 2025, which should help further stabilize the grid.

Performance Improvements

The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) for the new financial year-to-date (1-3 April 2025) stands at 28.67%, showing improvement from 31.92% during the same period last year – a reduction of approximately 3.3%.

For the full previous financial year (April 2024 to March 2025), the UCLF improved by approximately 6.3% compared to the 2023-2024 financial year, indicating gradual progress in reducing unplanned breakdowns.

The average unplanned outages from 28 March to 3 April 2025 reduced to 13,609MW, showing an improvement of 622MW compared to the same period last year.

Diesel Expenditure

Over the past 30 days, Eskom has spent R3.4 billion on diesel, which represents a 2.1% decrease compared to the previous 30-day period. More significantly, diesel expenditure for the financial year ending 31 March 2025 was reduced by R16.51 billion – 49.5% less than the R33.35 billion spent during the previous financial year.

This substantial reduction in diesel costs suggests less reliance on expensive emergency generation, though the system is still requiring significant diesel support.

Energy Availability and Planned Maintenance

The year-to-date Energy Availability Factor (EAF) stands at 56.58%, virtually unchanged from the same period last year (56.8%). The EAF for the previous year (April 2024 to March 2025) was approximately 60.6%.

The Planned Capacity Loss Factor is 14.05%, approximately 3.1% higher than the 10.93% recorded during the same period last year, confirming Eskom's increased focus on planned maintenance activities.

OCGT Usage

The Open-Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) load factor increased to 22.69% in the past week (28 March to 3 April 2025), up from 20.83% the previous week. This is significantly higher than the 2.17% recorded during the same period last year, indicating substantially higher reliance on these emergency generators despite the absence of loadshedding.

Year-to-date, Eskom spent approximately R332 million on fuel for the OCGT fleet, generating 588.48GWh – marginally higher than the 400.93GWh generated during the same period last year.

Outlook

While loadshedding remains suspended, the narrow margin between available capacity and peak demand suggests the system remains vulnerable. Eskom's continued high reliance on OCGTs indicates the utility is still using expensive emergency measures to avoid loadshedding.

The power utility has indicated it will be announcing its winter outlook soon, which will provide more clarity on the expected performance during the high-demand winter months. The current high levels of planned maintenance aim to enhance fleet reliability before winter peak demand begins.

The slight improvement in unplanned outages and significant reduction in diesel expenditure year-on-year represent positive indicators, though the EAF remains well below the target of 70% that Eskom has previously indicated is necessary for system stability.

Public Appeal

Eskom continues to appeal to the public to avoid illegal connections and to only purchase electricity from accredited vendors. The utility's 'Save Your Transformers, Save Lives' campaign emphasizes reporting illegal activities to the Eskom Crime Line at 0800 112 722 or via WhatsApp at 081 333 3323.

Key Terms Explained

Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF): The percentage of generation capacity unavailable due to unplanned breakdowns or failures. Lower percentages indicate fewer unexpected breakdowns and better reliability.

Energy Availability Factor (EAF): The percentage of maximum energy generation that is actually available. An EAF of 100% would mean all power stations are running at full capacity; South Africa's current 56.58% means nearly half of the theoretical capacity is unavailable due to breakdowns and maintenance.

Planned Capacity Loss Factor (PCLF): The percentage of generation capacity unavailable due to scheduled maintenance. Higher numbers mean more planned maintenance is taking place, which is generally positive for long-term reliability.

Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT): Emergency power generators that run on diesel, similar to jet engines connected to generators. They're extremely expensive to operate (costing about R4-5/kWh compared to coal at R0.40/kWh) but can be started quickly when the system is under strain. High OCGT usage indicates a strained power system.

Load Factor: The percentage of capacity being used. For OCGTs, a high load factor means these emergency generators are running more frequently and at higher output levels.

1 Gigawatt-hour (GWh): Enough electricity to power approximately 650,000 homes for one hour.