Loadshedding Remains Suspended as Power System Maintains Stability

11 April 2025

Loadshedding Suspension Continues as Eskom Focuses on Winter Preparations

Loadshedding remains suspended across South Africa as Eskom maintains system stability while simultaneously increasing planned maintenance ahead of the winter demand season.

According to Eskom's latest update on Friday, the power system remains stable with adequate emergency reserves being strategically deployed to meet peak demand periods. The utility is currently conducting planned maintenance on 14.85% of its generation capacity, representing 7,402MW of power.

Maintenance Levels at Four-Year High

The current planned maintenance level marks a significant 3.8% increase compared to the same period last year. This substantial increase is part of Eskom's strategy to enhance fleet reliability ahead of winter's higher electricity demand while also ensuring compliance with environmental and regulatory requirements.

Unplanned outages (known as the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor or UCLF) for the first ten days of the new financial year stand at 28.50%, showing an improvement of approximately 2.85% compared to the 31.35% recorded during the same period last year.

Current System Performance

As of April 11th, unplanned outages have decreased significantly to 11,564MW, down by 2,044MW from 13,608MW recorded last week. The available generation capacity currently stands at 28,662MW against tonight's forecasted peak demand of 26,788MW, providing a narrow but sufficient buffer.

The year-to-date Energy Availability Factor (EAF) stands at 56.11%, slightly below the 57.16% recorded during the same period last year. Eskom attributes this marginal decrease primarily to the higher planned maintenance activities currently underway.

Diesel Usage and OCGTs

Eskom has spent R3.6 billion on diesel over the past 30 days (March 12 to April 10), representing a 2.5% decrease compared to the previous 30-day period. However, the utility has increased its reliance on Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs), spending approximately R1.34 billion on fuel for these peaking plants in the first ten days of April.

The OCGT load factor increased to 29.95% in the past week, up from 22.69% in the previous week, and significantly higher than the 9% recorded during the same period last year. These expensive peaking units have generated 228.33GWh so far this month, substantially more than the 64.09GWh during the same period last year.

Additional Capacity Coming Online

Eskom has announced that a total of 3,130MW will be returned to service before the evening peak on Monday, 14 April 2025, which should further stabilize the grid.

Outlook

While loadshedding remains suspended, Eskom's data suggests the power system is maintaining a delicate balance. The increased planned maintenance and higher OCGT usage reflect ongoing work to prepare for winter demand. The utility plans to announce its formal Winter Outlook later in April, which should provide more concrete indications of supply reliability during the upcoming high-demand season.

The combination of improved unplanned outage statistics and increased planned maintenance suggests Eskom is prioritizing long-term system reliability over short-term availability, a strategy that aims to reduce unexpected breakdowns during winter. However, the relatively low EAF of 56.11% indicates the system remains vulnerable to sudden unit failures.

Warning Against Illegal Connections

With electricity demand continuing to rise despite the suspension of loadshedding, Eskom has issued warnings about illegal connections and transformer overloads. The utility urged the public to help prevent equipment failures, which can result in explosions and prolonged outages.

Eligible households are encouraged to register for free basic electricity with their local municipalities. Eskom also called on the public to report any illegal activity affecting its infrastructure to the Eskom Crime Line at 0800 112 722 or via WhatsApp on 081 333 3323.

Key Terms Explained

Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF): This represents the percentage of Eskom's total generation capacity that is unexpectedly offline due to breakdowns, trips, and other unplanned events. Lower UCLF numbers indicate fewer unexpected outages and a more reliable fleet.

Energy Availability Factor (EAF): This measures the percentage of Eskom's total generation capacity that is available for use. It accounts for both planned and unplanned outages. A higher EAF indicates more generating capacity is available. For context, Eskom's Recovery Plan targets 70% EAF by winter 2025.

Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs): These are peaking power plants that run on diesel and are designed to operate during periods of high demand or when other generation capacity is unavailable. They are efficient for quick response but expensive to run for extended periods. Eskom often uses OCGTs to avoid or minimize loadshedding.

Planned Capacity Loss Factor: This represents the percentage of generation capacity that is offline due to scheduled maintenance. While this reduces immediate available capacity, it's essential for ensuring long-term reliability.

Load Factor: In the context of OCGTs, this indicates what percentage of their total possible generation they're actually producing. A higher load factor means they're being used more intensively.

MW vs. GWh: Megawatts (MW) measure capacity or the rate of energy production, while Gigawatt-hours (GWh) measure the actual amount of energy produced over time. For reference, 1,000MW running for one hour produces 1GWh of electricity, enough to power approximately 650,000 homes for that hour.