Eskom's Winter 2025 Outlook: No Loadshedding Expected If Unplanned Outages Stay Below 13GW

Eskom Projects Loadshedding-Free Winter Under Specific Conditions

Eskom has released its Winter 2025 outlook, projecting that South Africa may avoid loadshedding during the upcoming winter months if unplanned outages remain below 13GW. This represents a notable improvement from previous years' winter forecasts.

According to the utility, even if unplanned outages increase to 15GW, loadshedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days at Stage 2 throughout the 153-day winter period. This marks a significant improvement compared to Winter 2024's worst-case scenario, which predicted potential Stage 5 loadshedding.

Improved Operational Performance

The improved winter outlook stems from a 3.1GW year-on-year decrease in unplanned outages, which has enhanced overall generation capacity. The forecast range for unplanned outages has been lowered to 13-15GW, down from 14-17GW in Winter 2024.

Eskom Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane noted: "This year's Winter Outlook prediction is built on an improvement in operational performance and overall efficiency. Loadshedding was the lowest in Eskom's last Financial Year (FY) 2025 than in the previous 2 years. In FY 2025 we delivered power 96% of the time, in the previous year the figure was just 9.9%."

Marokane also highlighted that the utility's open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) were utilized approximately 50% less in FY2025 compared to the two previous financial years, resulting in savings of approximately R16 billion.

Recent Setbacks and Recovery Plan

Despite the overall improvements, Marokane acknowledged recent operational challenges: "Against this progress, we have seen some setbacks in operational excellence, as evidenced by the recent loadshedding requirements between January to April 2025. A targeted plan has been put in place to reinforce operational discipline and accelerate recovery initiatives to address the root causes related to the recent loadshedding events."

Key Performance Indicators

The winter outlook is based on several key performance indicators:

• Unplanned outages: Decreased by 3.1GW year-on-year, with a significant 4.5GW reduction between May 2023 (18GW) and April 2025 (13.5GW).
• Planned maintenance: Reached 12.8% for FY25, up from 12% in the previous year. Between September and March, maintenance activity averaged 14.50%, compared to 14.07% during the same period the previous year.
• Plant availability: Improved to 61% in FY2024/25, up from 54.6% the previous year — an approximately 6.5% year-on-year improvement.
• Diesel consumption: Dropped by approximately 50%, resulting in cost savings of approximately R16.51 billion year-on-year.
• Sales volumes: Grew by approximately 3.6% year-on-year, driven by improved generation capacity, higher exports and reduced reliance on diesel.

Infrastructure Updates

Several infrastructure milestones have contributed to the improved outlook:

• Kusile Units 2 and 3 have been successfully reconnected to the main stacks and are now operating with the flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) system. Unit 1 is undergoing a scheduled outage and is expected to return to service in June.
• 3,470MW of wind capacity was made available through curtailment in the Eastern and Western Cape.
• 880,000 smart meters have been installed to date, supporting effective demand control and enabling eligible customers to return surplus clean energy to the grid.
• Koeberg Unit 2 successfully returned more than 900MW to service in December 2024 following the completion of the Long-Term Operation project.
• Kusile Unit 6 was synchronized to the grid on March 23, 2025, contributing 800MW, and is scheduled to begin commercial operation by September 2025.
• Medupi Unit 4 is anticipated to return 800MW to service by the end of May 2025.

Future Plans

Eskom is focusing on evolving its business model to position itself for the energy transition while ensuring energy security. Key initiatives include:

• Implementing approximately 5.90GW of clean energy projects by 2030
• Legally separating Distribution and Generation divisions
• Enhancing Distribution and Generation products and service offerings
• Exploring strategic partnerships for funding and execution

Outlook

While the winter forecast shows significant improvement compared to previous years, the electricity system remains vulnerable to unexpected breakdowns. The projected loadshedding-free winter depends heavily on maintaining unplanned outages below the 13GW threshold.

The historical pattern of winter performance suggests caution is warranted, as generation units face additional stress during colder months when demand typically increases. Although Eskom has made notable progress in reducing unplanned outages and improving maintenance practices, the system continues to operate with limited reserves.

The recent episodes of loadshedding between January and April 2025 indicate that despite overall improvements, operational challenges persist and can quickly impact system stability.

Key Terms Explained

OCGT (Open Cycle Gas Turbines): Emergency power generation units that run on diesel fuel. These are expensive to operate and are typically used during peak demand or when other generation capacity is unavailable. They're similar to jet engines connected to generators.

FGD (Flue Gas Desulphurisation): An environmental control system that removes sulfur dioxide from power plant exhaust gases. This helps reduce air pollution but requires the plant units to be connected to specialized infrastructure.

Energy Availability Factor (EAF): A percentage measure of how much of a power station's maximum capacity is available for generation. An EAF of 61% means that, on average, 61% of Eskom's total generation capacity was available to produce electricity.

Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF): The percentage of generation capacity lost due to unplanned breakdowns and failures. When expressed in GW (gigawatts), it represents the actual amount of generating capacity that is unavailable due to unexpected issues.

GW (Gigawatt): A unit of power equal to one billion watts. For context, 1GW can power approximately 650,000 average South African homes.